Inception Phase
Objective: To lay the groundwork, refine the scope, and develop a comprehensive work plan for the subsequent phases.
Key Activities:
i. Conduct an initial review of relevant background materials (2022 PHC data, previous census and surveys reports, policies, etc.);
ii. Engage with key stakeholders, including NBS, OCGS, ILO and IOM, to clarify objectives, scope, and expected deliverables;
iii. Develop an inception report outlining the work plan, methodology, key deliverables, and a timeline for each stage of the consultancy; and
iv. Identify and propose a thematic structure for the monograph (e.g., internal migration, international migration, labour migration, urbanization, and policy implications).
Deliverables:
Inception report, including detailed work plan, methodology, proposed thematic structure, timeline and consultation outcomes.
Data Review and Analysis
Objective: To conduct a comprehensive review and analysis of the 2022 PHC migration data.
Key Activities:
i. Extract and clean migration-related data from the 2022 PHC dataset;
ii. Identify data gaps, inconsistencies, or limitations and propose mitigation measures;
iii. Conduct a preliminary analysis of migration trends, disaggregated by key demographic variables (age, gender, location, education, marital, citizenship, etc.); and
iv. Validate findings with NBS, OCGS, and other stakeholders.
Deliverables:
i. Data review and analysis report, including data tables, key trends, and preliminary visualizations/presentations.
ii. List of identified data gaps and proposed measures to address them.
Chapter Development and Drafting
Objective: To develop detailed thematic chapters of the Migration and Urbanization Monograph.
Key Activities:
i. Draft content for each thematic chapter, including narrative analysis, graphics, and data visualizations/presentations;
ii. Incorporate case studies, policy implications, and insights from stakeholder consultations;
iii. Submit initial drafts of all chapters for review by NBS, OCGS, IOM, ILO and other key stakeholders; and
iv. Revise drafts based on feedback from stakeholders.
Thematic Chapters Includes:
i. Overview of the 2022 Population and Housing Census
ii. Introduction to migration concepts, the background of census migration data, relevant census questions and definitions.
iii. Internal migration,
iv. International migration, the levels, trends and demographics, including gender, of Tanzanians moving across borders.
v. Internal labour migration
vi. International labour migration,
vii. Urbanization; trends, the history of urbanization and the relationship between migration and urbanization.
viii. Policy implications of the findings,
Deliverables:
i. First draft of all chapters of the Migration and Urbanisation Monograph.
ii. Revised chapters incorporating stakeholder feedback.
Stakeholder Review and Validation
Objective: To validate the content of the monograph with stakeholders and ensure alignment with policy and strategic priorities.
Key Activities:
i. Organize a stakeholder review workshop to present draft chapters for validation, this will be done by NBS, OCGS, IOM and ILO;
ii. Collect feedback and recommendations from stakeholders;
iii. Revise the draft chapters based on stakeholder input; and
iv. Ensure the monograph aligns with national development priorities and policies.
Deliverables:
i. Validation workshop report, including participant feedback and key recommendations.
ii. Final draft of the Migration and Urbanization Monograph, incorporating inputs from stakeholders.
Finalization and Dissemination
Objective: To finalize the monograph, prepare dissemination kit, and support the launch and distribution process.
Key Activities:
i. Finalize the migration monograph, ensuring accuracy, consistency, and quality;
ii. Design and format the final monograph, including graphics, infographics, and layout;
iii. Prepare a policy brief summarizing key findings and recommendations; and
iv. Develop a dissemination strategy and support the launch event.
Deliverables:
i. Final, formatted Migration and Urbanization Monograph ready for publication (Printing or posting to the website).
ii. Policy brief highlighting key findings and policy recommendations.
iii. Dissemination plan and support for the launch event.
Expected Deliverables of the Monograph
i. Migration and Urbanization Report
ii. Popular report (results highlights)
iii. Policy Brief
iv. Factsheet (summary of facts and figures)
v. Analytical spreadsheets/models
In order to enhance capacity within the country, national consultants will be given priority. Government MDAs will be requested by NBS and OCGS to release a qualified staff to work with NBS and OCGS to write the report. Released staff will be required to attend all workshops and continue with other members through correspondence. Likewise, the Statistician General and Chief Government Statistician, Zanzibar will select among their staff to join the team. As part of capacity building, statistical or demographic training institutions in the country will be requested to choose students (preferably Masters or PhD) to join the teams.
REVIEW TEAM
The consultant will work closely with the Census Technical Advisor and the technical committee on migration data. The technical committee will be convened by the National Bureau of Statistics to review the draft report. Workshop and review meetings will be conducted to ensure a structured development process for the Migration and Urbanization Monograph.
6. Performance indicators for the evaluation of results
The consultant is expected to observe the following:
i. Provide a comprehensive but compact literature review highlighting the state of research and knowledge (including available or emerging methodologies), and policy considerations in the thematic area. Give due consideration to past and current government policy frameworks and global development goals.
ii. Develop or adopt a simple (but not simplistic) population and development theoretical or analytical framework to ensure policy orientation and user friendly.
iii. Define different migration-related sub-populations for estimation, in alignment with international, regional, and national definitions.
iv. Document any discrepancies.
v. Review and refine counting rules for each population definition, in consultation with thematic experts in the review team, and documentation of limitations.
vi. Develop and review a tabulation plan to translate the raw data from the sixth Post-Union Population and Housing Census 2022 dataset into a structured format for a monograph, including organizing consultation sessions between lead author and IOM project team.
vii. Conduct exploratory analysis, identify descriptive indicators, and possible lines of secondary analysis in coordination with the review team.
viii. Identify and develop methodology for inclusion of sources of administrative data which may complement the exercise.
ix. Provide written assessment of administrative data and develop recommendations for their improvement to support the production of statistics in future.
x. Describe clearly the methods and procedures used. These methods must be internationally accepted or recommended
xi. Develop or adopt a spatial-temporal framework that will enable analysis of trends of the key indicators at regional level.
xii. Highlight aspects of the monograph relevant to achievement of the third National Five-year Development Plan 2021/2022 – 2025/2026 (FYDP III) and Zanzibar Development Plan 2021/2022 – 2025/2026 (ZADEP) strategies in a policy brief
xiii. Provide a comparative analysis of Tanzania and selected countries (in East Africa, Africa, other developing countries, and developed countries).
xiv. Provide adequate citations of all resources and published materials used in the monograph, according to internationally accepted conventions. The author is encouraged to use peer-reviewed material and published policy documents.
xv. Make adequate reference to the United Nations Principles and Recommendations for the Population and Housing Census, especially for the 2020 round;
xvi. Familiarize with and make adequate reference to past censuses methodology in Tanzania;
xvii. Consultant has overall responsibility over other team members.
xviii. Organize document writing sessions with key stakeholders to review and edit the draft monograph; and
xix. Develop communication material on the monograph to be disseminated including via TV and radio spots, leveraging various media channels.
